There is a play that I like on every game this weekend, but im going to wait and keep looking into them. The one that sticks out to me is the under 51.5 in the Colts-Patriots game. I still cant decide who I think will win the game, though I am leaning on the Patriots, but I can see N.E. running the ball alot and trying to control the ball as much as possible and killing the clock, giving the least amount of time to Manning as possible. Patriots wont win a shootout, and they know it. I dont see a reason that Dillon cant run with some success on the Colts, I figured the O/U would be about 45 for this game, so I am on this one big. LIke to hear what some other people think.
Esqajm: I totally understand where you are coming from. Indy is a high powered offense. But looking at their season, when they step up the level of competition, and play a strong Defense, like NE week 1, and the Ravens to name a few, they will play well, but not score a ton... I really expect Ne to play ball control and slow the game down. Manning will get his chances, Patriots will give him the least amount possible. Heavy dose of Corey Dillon is expected by me
i think i`ll be teasing the unders in the indy and eagles games....with t.o. out.....moss hobbled.....the eagles depending on their back .......and the pats looking to dillon.....
seems like everybody goes overboard on the colts every year as they slaughter mediocre clubs at home....but when they play well coached defenses like the ravens,things slow down considerably...and regardless of the pats backfield woes,belichick will slow them down......
same for the vikings....they`ll see a real defense in philly this week.....
i think the unders are the way to go.....
seems like everybody goes overboard on the colts every year as they slaughter mediocre clubs at home....but when they play well coached defenses like the ravens,things slow down considerably...and regardless of the pats backfield woes,belichick will slow them down......
same for the vikings....they`ll see a real defense in philly this week.....
i think the unders are the way to go.....
Hardcore, I'm guessing the books came up with 51.5 based on the actual total from the previous meeting of these 2 teams this year (27-24), might be the same situation for the line as well. That game was in the dome. I think the wintry conditions on the hard field in Foxboro will be less conducive to a shootout style of game, and the other guys gave good reasoning for the under as well. Looks like a good call, except Patriots are quietly averaging around 28 ppg themselves!
The season opener was NOT in the dome.
Ty Law and Ty Poole played for NE.
James fumbled past mid-field twice in that game. He has fumbled 4 times in his last 322 carries.
NE has others banged-up in their secondary and Richard Seymour may not be 100%.
Clark and Wayne had 1 catch each in the 24-27 loss. They average 9 catches/gm. combined now.
The Colts scored 17 in last year's playoff game despite Manning's 4 INTS. Rule changes since help Harrison et al from some of NE's standard tactics. They scored 34 last year regular season (in the dome) v. NE and 24 this year, despite things said before and a key late sack which in all likelihood kept the game from a 27-27 OT. Game 1's normally have defenses more in synch than offenses, BTW.
There's only so much ball control you can do. You don't beat INDY with 12-play drives, and what happens if you get stuck 10-14 points early?
INDY may be fortunate NOT to be home...some of the pressure is off. Manning is probably the best in the league to command the line of scrimmage in the face of a hostile crowd. He's been in NE twice recently, and I doubt their are any meaningful wrinkles Belechik hasn't already shown him.
This is NOT an INDY recommendation, but it is an OVER call.
Ty Law and Ty Poole played for NE.
James fumbled past mid-field twice in that game. He has fumbled 4 times in his last 322 carries.
NE has others banged-up in their secondary and Richard Seymour may not be 100%.
Clark and Wayne had 1 catch each in the 24-27 loss. They average 9 catches/gm. combined now.
The Colts scored 17 in last year's playoff game despite Manning's 4 INTS. Rule changes since help Harrison et al from some of NE's standard tactics. They scored 34 last year regular season (in the dome) v. NE and 24 this year, despite things said before and a key late sack which in all likelihood kept the game from a 27-27 OT. Game 1's normally have defenses more in synch than offenses, BTW.
There's only so much ball control you can do. You don't beat INDY with 12-play drives, and what happens if you get stuck 10-14 points early?
INDY may be fortunate NOT to be home...some of the pressure is off. Manning is probably the best in the league to command the line of scrimmage in the face of a hostile crowd. He's been in NE twice recently, and I doubt their are any meaningful wrinkles Belechik hasn't already shown him.
This is NOT an INDY recommendation, but it is an OVER call.
i don`t post that many plays in the football forums.....mostly boxing plays....but.i`m not just going on a gut...there`s some precedence to consider the under....
from a friend on another site...
"""League: 6-35 under (Av. score 33.4) home 3- fav off a BYE!
1-21 under (Av. score 31.6) since 1997!!!
NE 3-10 under last 13 play-off games also.
Only 1 Indi road game has gone over this number all season!!...That was @ KC.""""
now,of course,it could fly over the number.....the defensive injuries will affect the pats...no doubt....
but,giving belichick 2 weeks to gameplan....and with the temperatures potentially being unfavorable to indy....and the trends....it`s worth a look-see,imo....
that`s why they call it gambling....
from a friend on another site...
"""League: 6-35 under (Av. score 33.4) home 3- fav off a BYE!
1-21 under (Av. score 31.6) since 1997!!!
NE 3-10 under last 13 play-off games also.
Only 1 Indi road game has gone over this number all season!!...That was @ KC.""""
now,of course,it could fly over the number.....the defensive injuries will affect the pats...no doubt....
but,giving belichick 2 weeks to gameplan....and with the temperatures potentially being unfavorable to indy....and the trends....it`s worth a look-see,imo....
that`s why they call it gambling....
